Monday, February 26, 2007

Chance of winning lottery vs. chance of being pummeled by co-workers

It's lottery fever out here in the northwest as the Mega-millions pushes past $200 million bucks. My co-workers went in on some tickets as a group last week. Each person put in $5, and I put in $1. Why did I only put in $1? So I could be included in the fun and then on Monday wave 4 dollar bills around singing "Look what I have that you don't!"

After I caught my breath from all the running and singing, I explained that their chances of winning are as close to zero as anything might practically be. They countered with "Well, someone will win!" To which I replied, "Maybe so, but that person will not be you." They don't seem to grasp the difference between the chance of someone winning, and the chance of they themselves winning.

Anyway, I've been banned from their lottery group because I have "Bad vibes" which they feel caused them to loose last week. One of them called me neurotic, one said that I do not understand statistics, and one said that I don't understand the role of faith!

What do I understand? Let's see... 56 numbers, 5 positions, and one power multiplier which can be a number from 1 to 46.
So N=56, K=5...

46 * ( N! / (N-K)! ) / K! = 1 in 175 million.


Behold! The tax on people bad at math! Next week, they will be devising methods for determining if someone is a witch. It probably has to do with the ability to float... like, for example, small stones or ducks.

7 Comments:

Blogger Tommy said...

So, if I buy 175 million tickets I stand to make a handsome profit!

February 27, 2007 at 7:50:00 AM PST  
Blogger Jason W. said...

Let's not forget taxes, and the wages you will have to pay an army of undergraduates to collect, sort, and store your tickets. You will also need some servers and a DBA to keep your numbers straight.

Fortunately, the lottery tickets are 100% recycleable, so that will save on disposal. They print that on the ticket. I wonder how many tons of ink are waste printing that?

February 27, 2007 at 7:24:00 PM PST  
Blogger Mike said...

Wait a minute. If your odds of winning are 1/175M and the payout is $200M, isn't your expected rate of return positive (assuming no duplicate winners?) Sounds like a good investment to me. Better than today's stock market in any event. Also, I can't believe you coughed up a dollar for a ticket. Sucker.

February 27, 2007 at 7:36:00 PM PST  
Blogger Tommy said...

The jackpot is up to $340 million. Jason, I think you better take the week off. Your coworkers may have your head if you say anything now.

March 4, 2007 at 11:29:00 AM PST  
Blogger Jason W. said...

They are buying tickets every week. I have the equation on my white board which is becoming more risky the more they continue to loose. And I'm still being told that I'm "being negative" by posting an equation. Should I find this statement more amusing than disturbing, or more disturbing than annoying?

March 5, 2007 at 8:39:00 PM PST  
Blogger Tommy said...

I'll state my answer mathematically:
amusing > disturbing > annoying

Here's hoping the balls roll in my favor.

March 6, 2007 at 10:31:00 AM PST  
Blogger Mike said...

$370 million now! I can't take it anymore. Jason, by me 500 tickets. I'll pay you back with my winnings.

March 6, 2007 at 6:36:00 PM PST  

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